Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
